Makroekonomický výhled pro region CEE 07/2010

Czech Republic
The economy is growing thanks to the automotive industry. Domestic demand remains subdued. Investment and consumption is decreasing and thus inhibit inflation. The central bank may keep its interest rates unchanged at least until early next year. 

Hungary
The budget deficit swell to 118% of the full-year target at the end of the first half the 2020 and it is still not clear where the deficit would be heading for without intra-year government measures. In this respect the central bank’s forecast for 4.5% of GDP full-year deficit seems to be the best case scenario for that. This means that the government will have to implement tight spending control in the second half of the year in order to meet the 3.8% of GDP deficit target. 

Poland
Polish growth perspective seems to have improved in the second quarter after severe winter at the beginning of the year. Beside solid recovery of export-oriented manufacturing also domestic consumption seems to have bottomed at the beginning of the year. If fiscal policy stays relaxed ahead of the 2011 general elections, we may hear haks on MPC board to speak more loudly soon. 

Slovakia
The Slovak manufacturing is growing thanks to auto and electrotechnical industries. The corporate companies signal cautious creating of new jobs. The new centre-right government admits the deficit could be at the level 7% of GDP.