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Detail - articles
KGHM: To publish 2013 budget this week

KGHM: To publish 2013 budget this week

12/02/2013 09:20

The Supervisory Board of the company gathers on the 14 February.  According to the CEO Herbert Wirth KGHM is likely to publish its 2013 budget alongside this meeting. On the other front Mr. Wirth added that the company is planning to spend PLN 6 bn in the Polish capex in 2013-2014 and expects capex on its foreign projects to amount to PLN 20 bn by 2018. The Polish capex figures are higher than those published yesterday in the technical report of Canadian Micon International. Here they stand at the level of PLN 5.1bn (calculated on current USD/PLN exchange rate). The report estimates Polish proven&probable reserves at 18.62m tonnes of copper and 1.8m oz of ounces of silver which at current pace of extraction would allow the production for next 30-40 years. The report predicts the cash EBIT of PL operations at USD 1.9bn in 2013 which will roughly decline to USD 1.35bn in 2016 at the copper prices declining from U$ 3.25/lb to U$3/lb and silver prices declining from U$ 30/troz down to U$25/troz.

Our view:
The capex numbers presented both by the CEO and Micon are higher than our estimates: we forecast currently spending in years 2013-2014 at PLN 4bn. This suggests to us that the company may speed up some projects and increase the research works in part of new domestic fields. The numbers regarding the results over the next four years look conservative to us as they assume almost 17% decline in silver prices which in significant part are responsible for the operating profit of the company (silver credit). We forecast the 2013 unitary net profit at PLN 2.9bn (-40.8% y/y) while the consolidated result at PLN 3.7bn (-31.3% y/y).


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