Unemployment rate (Jun): 8.1%
Consensus: 8.1%
Previous (May): 8.2%
The unemployment rate has slightly decreased from the previous month´s level. It is not surprising as the indicator is tracking its typical seasonal developments. However, in June the positive seasonal effects culminated. The labor market report indicates that seasonal jobs will not push the unemployment lower as hiring in June weakened significantly. Moreover, July will bring the first wave of new school leavers and graduates to the labor market. Thus, the unemployment rate will likely increase in the next few months.
So far, the economic recession has not a significant impact on the labor market. The seasonally adjusted unemployment was roughly stagnating in the 1H. However, job creation has already started worsening. The number of vacancies slightly decreased in June. The industrial data draws a similar picture - the employment has stopped increasing. In the construction sector, the employment is declining persistently. We expect the negative impact on the labor market to intensify at the end of this year and in 2013. The s.a. unemployment rate should increase progressively towards 9 pct. from the current 8.5 pct. level.