According to our estimates, the foreign trade surplus decreased to CZK 3bn in April from CZK 12.4bn in March. The year-on-year rate of growth of imports and exports should increase again after a deceleration in March.
The trade balance saw double digit growth in January, February and March. April’s balance will most probably be lower, but on a year-on-year comparison, there should be another improvement. Exports are benefiting from faster economic growth in the Eurozone and the high growth rate of the Slovak economy. Imports are being stimulated by strong investment activity and domestic demand. Thanks to the interactions of these causative factors, the trade balance has been getting worse in real terms over the past few months. Export prices are higher by 2.0% y/y, while import prices decreased by 1.8% y/y.