Yesterday evening the deputy PM and Agriculture Minister Mr. Lepper, the leader of the coalition party Samoobrona announced that his party would remain within the ruling coalition. Mr. Lepper received the promise from prime minister Mr. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, that he could return to the cabinet, after the corruption accusations against him are cleared. Meanwhile, today’s press reported that accusations were the result of a provocation of the anti-corruption office (CBA), using undercover agents acting as businessmen and state of the art surveillance equipment.
We still view the likelihood of a full blown political crisis leading to a snap election as minor. The fresh opinion polls indicate that new election would be won by the opposition party Civic Platform, getting 33% of the votes, while the ruling Law & Justice would get only 19% of the votes. The junior coalition partners (Samoobrona & LPR) would fail to pass the threshold to get to the new parliament.