The vote on dissolving the Polish parliament is likely to succeed today, as the leaders of four major political parties: Law & Justice, Civic Platform, Left Wing Alliance and Peasant Party, controlling 364 votes versus 303 required, have declared the support for the vote. The Left Wing Alliance has dropped its demand for setting up investigating commission prior to early elections and the Peasant Party witnessed recent polls indicating that it could enter the next Parliament.
The dissolving of Sejm today would leave intact our base scenario for snap election in October. The latest opinion polls indicate a victory by Civic Platform or Law & Justice, with the respective support of around 30%. However, as the polls show great volatility recently, the result of the next elections and the profile of the next government remain very much uncertain.