Trade balance ended in surplus of CZK 14.4b in September following slight deficit in July and August. The unexpectedly high surplus of international trade comes from slow import growth, which reached the lowest figure in 17 months (7.6%). On the other hand, export remained in a two-digit territory (+11%).
The favourable September results will improve the impact of foreign trade on GDP in 3Q07. Annual balance of trade is heading to come between CZK 65-70b. The positive result may help the Crown to stay near the 27.0 Crown/Euro level although we estimate the equilibrium exchange rate to be a little higher.