• In 2009, we expect the koruna to be weaker compared to its long-term appreciation path.
• This gap may remain during most of the year.
• Key source of weakness will be rapid economic downturn, possibly economic recession, combined with risk aversion on global markets.
• Other risks for the CZK are the development in the region and the course of economic crisis.
• The koruna is expected to be weakest in the first quarter; afterwards the currency should firm gradually.
• Although the mid-term outlook is negative, the koruna is expected to return to its long-term appreciation trajectory based on economic convergence towards the Eurozone.
The integral analysis together with the estimated evolution of exchange rates may be downloaded by Patria Plus clients HERE.