Industrial production (June)
Flash estimate: -12.3% y/y
Consensus: -17% y/y
Finally, data from the industrial sector suggest that the slump eased at the end of 2Q. Fiscal stimuli in the euro zone are likely to be the most important driver of the improvement. Rising industrial production and orders in Germany and France in May signaled better times for its neighbors. Indeed, export orders in the Czech industry dropped only 8.6% y/y in June after falling 26% y/y in January-May.
Easing recession can influence monetary policy. Until now it looked that cutting rates once again could be good idea. However, when the economy has the worst behind, it is not so clear.