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US: Durables rebound in May led by transportation

US: Durables rebound in May led by transportation

27.6.2011 9:39

In May, US durable goods orders surprised on the upside of expectations, rising by 1.9% M/M, while an increase by 1.5% M/M was expected. The previous figure was upwardly revised from -3.6% M/M to -2.7% M/M. The details show that the rebound was led by the transportation sector due to a 36.5% M/M jump in non-defence aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation component, durables rose by a more moderate 0.6% M/M due to a significant increase in electrical equipment (3.2% M/M), primary metals (1.8% M/M) and machinery (1.2% M/M). Computers and electronics rose by a more moderate 0.4% M/M, while orders for fabricated metals stabilized. Shipments of non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, which is an important indicator for GDP growth, rebounded by 1.4% M/M after a 1.5% M/M decline in April. The key swing factor in the data are the non-defence aircraft orders. Without transportation, the durables rose by a softer than expected 0.6% M/M, which might be a bit disappointing, but after the weak data of recent, we’re happy to see a rebound in the durables.
The third estimate of US Q1 GDP showed a slight upward revision from an annualized 1.8% Q/Q to 1.9% Q/Q; which was in line with expectations. The details show a downward revision in government consumption (-5.8% Q/Q from -5.1% Q/Q) and non-residential investment (2.0% Q/Q from 3.4% Q/Q), while residential investment (-2.0% Q/Q from -3.3% Q/Q) was upwardly revised. Net-exports (contribution revised from -0.06 to 0.14) and change in inventories (contribution revised from 1.19 to 1.31) showed a bigger contribution compared to the previous estimate. As the second quarter is almost passed, the data are rather outdated and therefore not important for markets anymore.


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