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ASMI's good 2Q results, soft outlook

ASMI's good 2Q results, soft outlook

28.7.2011 11:00

On a group level, sales were up 10% q/q to € 477m, in line with our € 470m forecast, but better than the € 446m CSS number. EBIT is up 10% q/q to € 104.1m, in line with the € 106.3m we expected and the € 104m CSS estimate.

Looking by segment, both FE and BE performed in line with our expectations, but the above CSS sales are explained by the BE (€ 352m in sales, +11% q/q, versus the € 323m CSS est). BE EBIT is up 11% to € 83.2m. The 23.6% EBIT margin (down from 23.8% despite the higher top line) is slightly below CSS expectations, as high raw materials prices continue to weigh on margins in the leadframe business.

The FE (€ 122m in sales, +5% q/q) performs in line with our and CSS expectations. The FE EBIT is up 11% y/y to € 20.8m, and the operating margin improves to 17.1% from 16% the previous quarter, despite an inventory correction that had a 1.1% negative impact on the gross margin (39% versus 39.2% in 1Q11).

Order intake is down in both FE (€ 84m vs € 121m previous Q) and BE (€ 256m vs € 323m previous Q), and the € 340m total order intake is slightly below the € 360m CSS forecast. The BtB drops to 0.7 from 1.0 a quarter ago.

In terms of the outlook, ASMI states that customers are taking time to assess their capacity plans, leading to lower order intake in 2Q. ASMI does not expect any improvement in this regard in 3Q, and expects that both FE and BE sales will be down in 3Q. Our estimates are in line with these comments, as we are counting on an 8% sequential sales decline in the FE and an 11% sequential sales drop in the BE.

The softer outlook is in line with other semi equipment companies, and with our and CSS expectations (according to Bloomberg, the CSS was looking for € 422m in 3Q group sales) we believe, but ASMPT is down 6% in HK trading nevertheless.

Our View:
Good 2Q results, but the rest of the year will be more difficult as clients are adopting a wait & see attitude due to limited visibility on 2012 semiconductor demand. We probably will not make changes to our model, as the 2Q results were well in line with our expectations, while the weaker outlook was expected as well.

We remain long-term positive based on the fundamental strength of the BE operations and the undervaluation of the FE (negative € 300m implied value) but the short outlook seems quite weak due to a general industry slowdown. Hence our Accumulate rating and € 27 target. Conf call at 3pm CET.

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