The Czech crown gained further ground on Thursday and the EUR/CZK currency pair reached the lowest level since mid July. In recent sessions, the koruna even manages to keep up with the Swiss franc, which has maintained its safe-haven status during the ongoing debt crisis in the Euro zone and the US.
Nevertheless, today’s early news that Moody’s has put the AA2 rating of Spain on review for a possible downgrade fuels risk aversion and the koruna posts modest losses. The EUR/CZK currency pair is currently trading at 24.19 EUR/CZK level.
Yesterday, Hungarian unemployment data came out in line with expectations. In June, the unemployment rate fell from 11.0% to 10.8%, exactly matching expectations. As the outcome was in line with expectations, the market reaction was limited. The forint strengthened yesterday morning, but gains were reversed afterwards. The EUR/HUF pair closed the session at 268.84 broadly unchanged from the opening level. This morning however also the Hungarian forint is under pressure after Moody’s put the rating of Spain under review for a possible downgrade. Also yesterday, the Hungarian government affirmed its 2011 and 2012 budget deficit targets, but added that new measures may become necessary after a European court ruling found its VAT refund regulations breached EU laws.
The Polish zloty posted modest gains on Thursday. According to Reuters, Polish state-owned BGK bank was selling euros on the market, which supported the Polish currency. Let us remind that the NBP’s governor Marek Belka sketched a possibility that the central bank might intervene in forex markets in order to curb the volatility of the zloty earlier this week.
As in the case of the Czech koruna, the zloty also slightly depreciated on news that Moody’s has put Spain’s rating on watch this morning. Apart from that, CE currencies should watch closely the development of the US debt crisis. Moreover, the figure on the Q2/11 US GDP will be released today. However, even in case of a wide deviation from consensus (positive or negative) it is not that easy to predict which card markets will play.