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PINGUINLUTOSA: Target price € 9

PINGUINLUTOSA: Target price € 9

13.10.2011 11:24

Since 2005, Pinguin’s offer has been expanded to include the fries and potato specialities of Lutosa. This made the group’s production less seasonal because unlike vegetables, potatoes can be stored and processed all year round.

In 4Q10, PinguinLutosa and Cecab (Centrale Cooperative Agricole Bretonne) finalised a € 10m capital increase (at € 11.67 per share) to fund a merger of their frozen-vegetable units.

In 1Q11, PinguinLutosa took a next step in its transformation with the takeover of Scana Noliko, one of Europe’s largest producers of canned and bottled fruit and vegetables, pastas, soups and sauces. PinguinLutosa will do a (6 new for 13 existing) public capital increase for a total amount of at least € 44m and maximum € 48.06m at a price of now € 9 per share.

Last week PinguinLutosa announced they believe it had now become unlikely that the entire capital increase of minimum € 44m could be placed successfully at € 11.67 per share as was announced back in March. Food Invest, Gimv-XL and Agri Investment Fund (AIF) gave a guarantee for the full capital increase of € 44m. The entry of AIF is positive as this is a strategic shareholder with a long term view.

As a reminder, during 1H11 PinguinLutosa's sales remained stable at € 228.1m (€ 228.4m in 1H10). The declining margins resulted in EBIT of € -17.3m 1H11 (€ -7.1m in 1H10). 1H11 REBITDA amounted to € -5.9 m (€ 2.8m in 1H10). PinguinLutosa indicated that the market conditions were difficult during 1H11. The climatic circumstances resulted in an unstable supply in production. Traditionally, the second half of the year is more important than the first half, however this is specific to the sector. This seasonality is strengthened by a favourable change in the market conditions. In the deep-frozen vegetable division the proposed increases in sales prices for the new season could be largely realised. Consequently PinguinLutosa expects that 2H11 (without taking into account the acquisition of Scana Noliko) will be better than lastyear following the positive change of market circumstances.

PinguinLutosa began a fundamental metamorphosis from the moment that the Deprez family entered the capital and board in 2005. We have an ACCUMULATE rating and reduced our target price to € 9.00 (was € 10.3) after the changed conditions of the capital increase to finance the acquisition of Scana Noliko.
This € 9.00 price target is based on projected top line growth to € 886m by 2015E. Our target price is supported by a DCF (€ 9.63). At our target price, PinguinLutosa would trade at P/E 2011E of 41.5, EV/EBITDA 2011E of 8.3 and EV/EBIT 2011E of 20.7. For 2012E these numbers would be respectively 8.7, 4.4 and 7.6.

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