Central European currencies have been waiting on the sideline before US payroll data this afternoon. Investors have also become more cautious about the outlook after the sharp rally of the forint and the zloty over recent weeks and bond yield levels are also trading in a narrow range.
The Czech central bank held its monthly meeting yesterday and decided 6-0 to keep the base rate unchanged at 0.75%. The growth forecast was revised significantly lower to zero from 1.2% in 2012 and to 1.9% from 2.7% in 2013. In line with this, inflation forecast was also adjusted to 1.5% in 1Q 2013 and the central bank emphasised that it sees inflation around the target if VAT increase is excluded from the price index. On the currency, the report expects a gradual appreciation for the coming quarters. The estimate now stands at 24.9/€ at the end of 2012, slightly up from the current 25.0-25.1/€ level.