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11.5.2012 13:41

D’Ieteren’s current pretax profits collapsed by 61.6% (KBCS -45%) in 1Q12. Belron’s organic sales fell by 10.6% (KBCS -5.1%) with a 0.8% decline (KBCS -3.0%) outside Europe and a 17.7% (KBCS -7.0%) drop in Europe. The group maintains its full year guidance. Management expects a 25% decline in current pretax profits (group share) in FY12. We were banking on a 22.4% decline. We’ll tweak down our forecasts to bring them in line with the reiterated guidance. We anticipate that 1Q12 will turn out to be the toughest quarter for D’Ieteren this year. Belron faces macro-economic headwinds. However, one should not underestimate the impact of weather conditions. Moreover, cost cuts should bear fruit during the coming quarters. Share price weakness in reaction to the disappointing 1Q12 figures represents a good buying opportunity. The stock is trading at very attractive multiples despite conservative expectations. Unchanged BUY rating.

Belron: The number of jobs fell by 11% (KBCS -5.0%) to 2.6 million in 1Q12. Reported sales declined by 8.1% (KBCS -3.2%) with a decline of 16.5% in Europe partly offset by 3.5% growth outside Europe. The 17.7% fall in European organic sales was much worse than we had anticipated. It was due to market declines in the majority of countries as a result of exceptionally mild winter conditions and the weak economic environment. Market shares improved however. The 0.8% decline in organic sales outside Europe reflects the exceptionally warm US winter weather, largely offset by share gains. Actions have been taken to reduce costs. For FY12 restructuring costs should amount to about € 12m most of which relate to the European operations. These measures should generate costs savings in excess of € 20m. Belron will also incur € 6-8m one-offs this year in relation to the Canadian acquisition program. The trading outlook for the remainder of the year remains challenging due to continuing weak market conditions. Comparables should get easier however. It will be difficult to achieve flat organic sales growth for the full year. This target should be achievable however during the remainder of the year.

D’Ieteren Auto: New car registrations fell by 12.7% in 1Q12 due to the withdrawal of low emission incentives as from 31 December 2011. Audi achieved a great quarter however thanks to reduced supply delays. There was also a favourable mix effect in 1Q12 as the low emission incentives mostly affected the small cars segment. During the first 4 months of 2012, D’Ieteren’s market share surpassed the record market share of 2011. We were positively surprised by the 2.0% rise in sales and the 6.5% rise at constant consolidation perimeter in 1Q12. We were counting on a 7.5% decline. New vehicle sales were up 7.5% at constant consolidation perimeter thanks to stepped deliveries to the dealer network as delivery times have shortened. This led to higher stock levels at the dealers. The rise in D’Ieteren’s market share (12.93% in 1Q12 versus 11.07% in FY11) in the light commercial vehicle segment also contributed to the positive top line surprise. For the full year, Febiac counts on a 15% decline of the new car market. D’Ieteren aims to increase its market share however.

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