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The forint outperforms other currencies, CNB’s Governor further boosted rate-cut expectations

The forint outperforms other currencies, CNB’s Governor further boosted rate-cut expectations

20.6.2012 11:20

The positive sentiment in other markets helped the forint to continue its twoweek long appreciating trend, which started with the government's change of position towards a more constructive stance. The forint has gained more than 4% over this period and is one of the best performing currency around the world.

Bond prices are also following this and yield levels govt close to 8%, almost 100bps lower than they were weeks ago. The Parliament however has not yet accepted the proposal and the IMF will assess it only after that around July, so we still cannot be sure that this is a done deal. Furthermore, even if talks start we can prepare for tough negotiations as for example the IMF may want to change the current 16% flat personal income rate, which is a cornerstone of the current government policy. The IMF may also want to see more spending cuts instead of revenue measures, like the recently announce 1% of GDP extra tax on banks, which would apply basically on all money transactions.

This however would risk that many companies would move their financial centres abroad and would transect from there, without paying the tax. Meanwhile, CNB’s Governor Singer has basically confirmed in local press that the Czech central bank is going to cut its repo rate on its meeting scheduled for June 28th. Recession in the eurozone is the main for further monetary easing in the Czech Republic.

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