BinckBank will report its 2Q12 earnings on 23 July, before market. We expect a weak set of figures driven by the drop in market volumes, volatility that was slightly up compared to 2Q11 and subdued net interest income. We expect the 2Q12 net profit to drop by 19.4% to € 5.1m (Adj. EPS of € 0.18). The consensus average targets an adjusted EPS of € 0.17.
Euronext market volumes in 2Q12 were weak, declining by 12.5% y/y o/w -13.4% for the Netherlands, +5.1% for Brussels and -13.2% for France. Volumes in structured products dropped by 31.1% in the Netherlands and by 17.6% in France. The average volatility was slightly up compared to 2Q11 and 1Q12.
Total revenues are expected to have declined by 6.5% suffering from the low interest rate environment, less stock lending and a 12% q/q drop in net commission income but flat y/y as we expect the rising trend in average commission earned per transaction to continue. Operating expenses are expected to decline by 2.9% driven by reduced marketing expenses.
Total retail client additions in 2Q12 are estimated at 12,726. The number of retail transactions executed is estimated at 1,752,058 (-4.2%) reflecting reduced market volumes and clients staying sideways.
BinckBank started consolidating the individual retail transactions of the SNS Bank BPO contract in 2Q11 which should support the Professional BU earnings. The number of clients in the Professional BU should continue tosee the positive impact of client migrations and the insertion of Syntel earnings from Group center.
Our View:
With retail investors shying away from financial markets and Euronext volumes down by 20% year-to-date, BinckBank’s FY12E earnings are likely to decline by the same magnitude hence our reduction of the full year adj. EPS from € 1.06 towards € 0.78. The share buy-back and reduction in initial marketing budget may somewhat mitigate the impact on basic EPS. Balance sheet remains strong with no debt, no PIIGS exposure and solvency that allows to continue the share buy-back (€ 1.5m per quarter).
Conclusion:
We maintain our Accumulate rating but reduce our target price from € 14 towards € 12.