On Thursday, Central European currencies slightly weakened against the euro.The Czech koruna outperformed its peers and the EUR/CZK cross rate thus remained safely between 55 (EUR/CZK 25.46) and 200 (EUR/CZK 25.43) days moving averages.
As we mentioned yesterday, yields of Czech government bonds are seen at the lowest level ever. A similar scenario is unwinding in Poland - 10Y government yields fell to the lowest level in 6 years on Thursday. The trading action was probably also driven by foreign demand. Bonds also got support from remarks of Deputy FinMin Radziwill who said that the country could satisfy its 2012 financing needs by the end of this quarter.
Meanwhile, Andrzej Bratkowski, the member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), said yesterday that, due to the state of the European economy, a rate cut could be justified in September. However, his opinion was swiftly opposed by another MPC member Jan Winiecki who said he saw no reason for such a move.
We believe that bets on rate cut in September are premature. Recall that Mr. Bratkowski opposed the latest rate hike in May and is thus seen as one of two most dovish MPC members (together with Elzbieta Chojna-Duch). Although we also think that May’s hike might have been a policy mistake, we expect that the hawkish camp among Polish central bankers is strong enough to reject any attempt to ease monetary conditions in the rest of this year.
As concerns Hungary, it was able to sell three-year debt at the lowest yield in almost nine months at an auction yesterday on speculation that the EU/IMF talks allow the central bank to cut interest rates.Talks with the IMF should start next week, when the Fund’s mission will come to Budapest.