The number of people seeking a job slightly increased influenced by typical summer seasonality. The jobless rate rose to 8.3% from 8.1% in June. The number of vacancies has not changed in recent months and remains too low to diminish unemployment. In July, the unemployment usually picks up. It is interesting that the total number of unemployed rises because of women. Maybe it has an explanation in the beginning of summer holidays and relatively high share of women in education system. Seasonally adjusted jobless rate changed marginally and sticks to 8.5%.
Unemployment fluctuates along this level for last 16 months. GDP growth in 2011 (1.7%) was too weak to help the labor market and the impact of current recession is still yet to come.
Unemployment is likely to start rising in coming months. We can already see negative trend in employment in some parts of the economy. At the end of 2012, jobless rate is forecasted to reach 9.1%. In December 2011, it was 8.6%. Anemic recovery expected in 2013 should not be of much help for the labor market. Thus, we can expect jobless rate to decline as late as 2014.