On Monday, commodities prices fell across the board and crude was no exception. Brent (ICE) lost about 1 percent and in intraday trading hit nearly three weeks low below 112 USD per barrel despite the fact that Tropical Storm Isaac has further approached US Gulf Coast. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said that about 80 percent of daily oil production in Gulf has been shut-in (about 1.07 million barrels per day). The impact on the price of oil is, however, limited as the hurricane might also cause damage to refineries and therefore might weigh on demand for oil. Moreover, prospective fall in production might be at least partially offset by unilateral release of oil from US strategic petroleum reserves.
Gold followed the rest of commodities complex and its price fell slightly on Monday. Gold clearly waits for the speech of Fed’s Bernanke (this Friday). We think Bernanke won’t prepare the ground for a move. He is a team player and probably wants to discuss the issue thoroughly at the September meeting. In August, the FOMC said it needed more eco data before deciding. So it looks opportune he waits on them as after the Jackson Hole conference, there are still more key economic releases before the meeting (payrolls in particular). If this is the case, we might see some profit-taking and the price of gold might fall back to 1600 USD/toz.