On Wednesday, regional currencies saw a relatively volatile session. The only exception was the Czech koruna which posted only negligible losses and edged to EUR/CZK 24.80. Meanwhile, both dovish comments of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) governor Belka and technical factors undermined the Polish currency (money market reaction to Belka’s words was not significant) - the EUR/PLN currency pair soared by 1.8 percent and the zloty therefore hit one month low.
Today, market will focus on Poland again as the statistical office will release the first estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter 2012. The figure might provide hints on further steps of the NBP which is expected to significantly ease monetary policy in the course of following months (according to forward rate agreements). After the year-on-year growth of the Polish economy decelerated to 3.5% in early 2012, the gross domestic product grew by approximately 3% in the second quarter of the year. Another decline in economic activity was evident in industry (its output rose by less than 3% y/y on average in the second quarter) and the rise in retail sales also decelerated significantly. Construction, which ‘only’ went up by a single-digit rate on the eve of the European Football Championship, is unlikely to encourage the GDP to any great extent either. The contribution of foreign trade to growth should be positive again, in spite of the problems of the European economy.