On Wednesday, the Central European currencies saw a mixed trading. While the forint and the zloty posted some gains in the aftermath of the US Congress deal, the Czech koruna breached back above 200 days moving average (EUR/CZK 25.15) and was hovering at a technical level at EUR/CZK 25.20 later in the afternoon. The koruna fell after the release of HSBC PMI for December; the index fell short of market expectations and reached the lowest level since July 2009. The export orders sub-index (a part of our leading indicator) looks even more worrying that the aggregate index. It remains well below the critical 50 points level and thus provides little support for our bets on an upturn in manufacturing cycle in Q2/2013.
The Polish HSBC PMI, on the contrary, surprised slightly on the upside and despite staying below the 50 points level, it rose for the third time in a row. Given the recent development, we bet on another rate cut to be delivered at the next week’s NBP meeting.