According to Polish daily Puls Biznesu, new mortgage loan sales declined to PLN 2.7bn in November 2012, the lowest level since 2009. This compares to over PLN 3bn new loan production in October 2012. According to the daily even though the year-end sales had been fueled by the end of the subsidized mortgage program ‘Rodzina na Swoim’ (170k clients in October, 175k in November and 181k in December) this inflow was not enough to fully offset declines on the broader market. According to the article, citing undisclosed sources sales of mortgage loans at PKO in December 2012 stood at above PLN 800m.
This decline in October should have been expected following recent data concerning new mortgage production at PKO which declined to PLN 777m in November, down from PLN 911m in October. The unofficial data from PKO suggest that there was some recovery in December. Overall 4Q12 should be stronger compared to previous quarters at least in PKO . We expect the news to have a neutral trading impact.