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TNT EXPRESS - 4Q12 preview and adjustment of forecasts

TNT EXPRESS - 4Q12 preview and adjustment of forecasts

15.02.2013 9:24

TNT Express reports FY12 numbers on February 18, before market opening (8.00 CET). A conference call is scheduled at 14:00 CET.

4Q12 preview:
We expect TNT Express to report 4Q12 group revenues of € 1,894m split as € 1,171m EMEA, € 466m AsPac, € 127m Americas and € 133m Other networks. We see Underlying EBIT at € 62m split as € 74m EMEA, € 8m AsPac, € -18m Americas, € 5m Other Networks and € -7m Non-Allocated. This comes down to a net profit of € 27m. We look for FCF of € 74m and year end net debt of € -109m.

EMEA challenging but manageable:
We expect 2013 to remain challenging on the back of a weak macro environment which will likely continue to burden volume recovery potential and put continued pressure on the product / price mix. We expect management to revive its cost savings program (likely to be announced in March / April) of which we believe ~€ 100m in structural cost savings are still left for grabs. We assume these will be evenly spread over 2013-14. We expect EMEA revenues to grow at 3-5% 2014-15 on the back of volume growth, inflation and an improvement in product mix. EMEA underlying EBIT margins could gradually creep towards 9% by 2015 which is at the low end of the medium term guidance.

What about Brazil & Domestic China?
Although Brazil has not been delivering as expected (won’t break-even 2H13) management could still blame it to some extent on the weak real GDP growth in Brazil. With most costs being fixed, a real revenues growth should be able to have a significant impact on margins. We understand that UPS was interested in the Brazilian assets; hence if the price is right an exit could be possible.

The future of TNT Express in Domestic China remains uncertain as heavy investments are needed to sustain and possibly expand its market positioning. We believe management will continue to consider a partnership or outright sale. This would likely be Eps accretive over the near term and reduce capex outflows, also positively impacting ROIC.
We lower our 2012 Eps forecast from 0.18 to 0.17 but increase our 2013 forecast from 0.27 to 0.31 as a result of the assumed cost savings in EMEA.

We lift our TP to € 5.8/sh (from € 5.0/sh) and stick to our Hold rating. At our TP, TNT Express trades on an EV/REBITA 2014 of 6.6x and P/E 2014 of 12.9x.

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