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Budimex: 4Q12 results above market expectations on all lines (positive)

Budimex: 4Q12 results above market expectations on all lines (positive)

18.02.2013 9:16

Budimex is scheduled to publish its full-year 2012 report on Wednesday 20 March 2013. However, due to the necessity of publishing financial data for a strategic investor, selected numbers from the company’s consolidated report for 2012 were disclosed today.

Budimex’s net income came in at PLN 109.3m for 4Q12 versus a loss of PLN 118.3m in the base period of 2011. (4Q11 figures were restated due to modifications in estimated net asset value of PNI.) The result came 42.6% above the PAP consensus estimate and 52.9% above our forecast,
as potential recognition of deferred tax assets in 4Q12 was only treated as an upside risk to our original forecast for the period. The company’s cash position amounted to PLN 1,118m, implying positive cash flow of PLN 205m in 4Q12.

We expect a positive market reaction to Budimex’s 4Q12 results today, though to some extent muted, as the company’s CEO had already flagged before that the consensus estimate for full-year 2012 net profit seems too low to him, while the firm had a tax gain on investments in real estate in 4Q12.

Total revenues came in at PLN 1,497.2m for 4Q12, down 11.6% y/y, 6.0% above our expectations and 4.2% above the consensus. The top line
decline on a yearly basis in 4Q12 was predominantly a consequence of a fall in construction revenues, which came in at PLN 1,249.3m for the period, down 22.7% y/y, on the back of a decreased backlog, but also due to a fall in the revenues from other activity, which came in at PLN 82.2m for 4Q12, down 3.6% y/y. At the same time, the company’s revenues from real estate activity grew by 383.9% y/y to PLN 197.0m in 4Q12 as a result of a far higher volume of deliveries. The difference from our estimate relates mainly to the fact that we have underestimated the revenues from the firm’s real estate and other activity for the quarter.

Gross profit came in at PLN 163.2m for 4Q12, up 21.7% y/y. This was due to a higher gross profit margin, which came in 0.8pp above our expectations at 10.9% for 4Q12 versus 7.9% in 4Q11. An increase in the firm’s aggregated margin in 4Q12 was mainly linked to a pick-up in the margin on construction activity, which was at 8.2% for the quarter, versus 7.5% in 4Q11, 3.3% in 3Q12 and our estimate of 7.5%, due to improving quality of realised contracts. At the same time, the margin on real estate activity was at 22.8% for 4Q12, up from 13.3% in 4Q11 due to a more favourable split of deliveries. As we underestimated the firm’s top line as well as gross margin on construction activity for 4Q12, gross profit came in 14.3% above our expectations. EBIT came in at PLN 73.0m for 4Q12 versus PLN -102.3m reported in 4Q11, due primarily to a write-down at PNI in the base period, 9.0% above the PAP consensus estimate, but in line with our forecast.

Pre-tax reached PLN 68.3m in 4Q12, compared to PLN -98.9m in 4Q11, 18.2% below our forecast, as we overestimated the company’s net financial result for the period. However, due to far lower-than-expected effective tax rate, linked to a tax gain on investments in real estate, the company’s 4Q12 bottom line came in well above our estimate.

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