On Friday, the Central European currencies were little changed against the euro. Although the currencies experienced increased volatility following a release of April payrolls in the US, the zloty & co. closed only a touch weaker than the day before. Recent weak correlation of the CEE currencies with the EUR/USD pair (a positive one in the last five sessions) is shown in the “FX correlation matrix” on the left. Meanwhile, regional bonds remained well bid on Friday and their yields hit new all-time lows (see chart below). Polish and Hungarian bonds have been
supported by bets on additional rate cuts both countries as well as foreign portfolio investments. Foreign investors, for example, boosted their holdings of Hungarian sovereign bonds by 43% Y/Y in the course of the first two months of this year.
Regarding this week, the two-day meeting of the National Bank of Poland to be concluded with a rate decision on Wednesday will become the regional eyecatcher. Majority of the market (including us) expects the NBP reference rate to stay unchanged at its all-time low of 3.25%. Hence markets will concentrate on the following press conference, namely on possible signs of additional policy easing in the next months; let us recall that two 25 bps rate cuts have been priced in within the next three months.