AvH’s 1Q13 update was largely in line with expectations with outperformances at Bank Delen & Bank J. Van Breda. Buy and TP maintained.
DEME’s revenue increased 21.5% y/y to € 525.5m while the orderbook declined slightly to € 3.2bn from € 3.3bn at YE12. Works at Northwind
were started up while those of the 3rd phase of C-power continued.
Works on the Port of Doha (Qatar) and Wheatstone (Australia) were started up as well in 1Q13. Part of the revenue increase is driven by higher turnover at marine works (up from about € 64.8m to € 147m y/y) and includes some lower margin turnover (steel). These results are in line with our FY13 scenario: 20% revenue increase and 16.3% EBITDA margin versus 18.3% in FY12.
Bank Delen recorded a 6% increase in AuM to € 27.5bn versus € 25.9bn at YE12. The increase is attributable to a net inflow at both Delen Private Bank and JM Finn & Co and to the positive evolution of the financial markets. Delen is well on track to achieve our FY13 expectations of € 28.3bn in AuM.
Total client assets at Bank J. Van Breda increased to € 8.3bn versus € 8.0bn at YE12. This outperforms our 1H13 forecasts of € 8.2bn. Loan volume from the bank core clients remained stable at € 3.0bn while provisions for loan losses amounted to 0.14%.
Little groundbreaking news in the Real Estate segment: Leasinvest sold in office building in Luxembourg for € 20m, the construction of Extensa’s building on the Tour & Taxis site is on schedule for completion in 1H14 and the seasonal impact of tourism was felt at Duval (which it hopes to counter with promotion activities).
Sipef’s palm oil production decreased 3.97% towards the end of 1Q13. The production prospects are on the low side for the next few months while 3Q13 looks more promising. With an unfavourable outlook for palm oil prices for 2H13, AvH expects Sipef’s FY13 to be lower than last year
At Private Equity € 37.5m cash was injected by Sofinim in Hertel early January while Sofinim realised a € 34m capital gain on the approved sale of Spanogroup. Both transactions were already known and incorporated in our model.
The net cash position at 3 May was € 181.4m (including the proceeds from Spanogroup) which compares with our figure of € 160m. We will upwardly adjust our model.
The FY13 outlook is reconfirmed: notwithstanding the limited view of how the economic situation will develop in FY13, AvH expects an improvement in net result.
The limited 1Q13 update confirms our positive stance towards the stock. AvH’s big guns (DEMe, Delen, Breda) lived up to the expectations while the remainder of the portfolio performed in line. Current trading levels do not yet fully reflect AvH’s earnings potential. We estimate NAV at € 90.4 p.s. with a 24% discount. Buy and TP € 77 reiterated.