Foreign minister of Portugal - Portas - offered his resignation. This happened after the rumours that PM of Portugal is about to resign. Eventually it was Portas who offered his resignation. Portas as leader of the junior coalition partner CDS expressed deep discontent with the appointment of Alburquerque as new finance minister because she is just as much “pro-austerity” as Mr. Gaspar, who resigned as finance minister earlier this week.
The resignation of Portas puts Portugal in a political crisis. Without support from the CDS, the government lacks a majority (PSD has 108 seats out of 230, CDS 24). This weekend, the CDS holds its annual party congress at which it will likely become clear whether or not they completely redraw their support. Nevertheless, chances of early elections clearly increased. Normally, the next Troika review would have started this week, but this will likely be delayed. Regarding the next disbursement of EU/IMF aid, this delay is no catastrophe. In May, Portugal successfully launched a new 10-yr benchmark and the treasury’s cash position is strong enough to pass the next big bond redemption (€5.8B in September). Overall, these political developments are negative for Portuguese bonds and we expect more spread widening. 10-yr bond yield breached the 8% level and is highest since the beginning of this year. Regarding other peripheral bond markets, we believe there will be pressure as well though to a much lesser extent.