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Aegon - 2Q miss on hedge losses, impairments

Aegon - 2Q miss on hedge losses, impairments

8.8.2013 15:49

Aegon (5,81 EUR, -2,27%) reports weaker than expected Q2 numbers with pre-tax profits coming in at € 273m, 38% below our estimates (KBCS € 441m, CCS € 425m). The miss is largely attributable to rising impairments (€ 57m versus € 32m CCS due to US, UK and Dutch mortgages), fair value items (€ 270m loss versus CCS € 130m due to higher than anticipated hedge losses and underperformance of own risk assets) and various restructuring/other expenses (Koersplan provision € 25m, UK restructuring provision of € 32m).

Underlying results were on the other hand a tad better than CCS with UEBT coming in at € 478m versus CCS € 466m (KBCS € 458m). The US and the UK were better than expected while the Netherlands and New Markets fell short. The Holding & Others segment was also better than anticipated as interest expenses went down following the further deleveraging of the capital structure (leverage dropped to 30.5% from 31.4% 1Q).

Shareholders’ equity declined more than anticipated to € 21.1bn (CCS 22.5bn) but this is largely a reflection of non-economic losses triggered by the rising interest rates. Excluding the revaluation reserves, core capital rose slightly to € 18.2bn, exactly in line with CCS.

Operational free cash flow was solid during the second quarter coming in at € 674m. Excluding market related and one-off items, FCF (prior to deduction of holding and financial expenses) stood at € 308m, broadly in line with our expectations.

Capitalization: The capital position of the operating units generally improved on the back of rising interest rates. The most noticeable increases were witnessed in the UK (pillar 1 ratio up 10ppt QoQ to 170%) and the Netherlands (IGD up to 235% from 220%). The US RBC slightly dropped to 465% reflecting a capital upstream to the group. Holding cash increased by € 0.1bn to € 1.9bn as outflows related to the preference share swap and common dividends were both offset by a € 0.6bn dividend upstream from the units.


Aegon reported a weaker than expected set of Q2 numbers as a good operational performance was offset by rising impairments and hedging losses (which were the key culprit for Q1 miss and subsequent stock price underperformance).The capital position on the other hand generally improved thanks to rising interest rates which bodes well for future dividends to the holding.

We will slightly cut our FY estimates reflecting the Q2 miss and the slight uptick in impairment levels. Reduce recommendation reiterated as we deem balance sheet risks (stemming from the low rate environment, adverse persistency UK) high heading into the Q3 actuarial assumption review.

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