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CEZ: Price of CO2 emission credits collapses

CEZ: Price of CO2 emission credits collapses

27.4.2006 9:14
Autor: Tomáš Gatěk, Patria Finance

The price of CO2 emission credits collapsed by 37% to EUR17 intraday to close down 16% at EUR23.23/ton after the Czech, Estonian, Dutch and French companies used lower CO2 credits than they were allocated. Note that CEZ has already reported a surplus of CO2 in 2005. The information comes from national registers collecting data from individual companies. The drop in the CO2 credit price should be neutral to CEZ in the near term and positive in the mid-term as (i) CEZ has budgeted its surplus credits at cEUR20 per ton, (ii) its 2006 CO2 needs will be covered by its balance and (iii) the company would have to be buying CO2 credits given its rising production in 2007. The drop on CO2 credit price has however led to a decline in 2007 electricity forward to EUR57.3/MWh from EUR60.1/MWh in the last two days (-4.7%).

The drop in German prices does not change our assumption of gradual rising domestic electricity prices, in fact it supports our assumption that German electricity prices would fall to the level of EUR45-50/MWh from the recent highs, which is still significantly above the current EUR35/MWh level in the Czech Republic. The news has mixed implications for western utilities: positive in the sense that they may not need to be buying CO2 credits, and if they do, it will be at a cheaper price, and falling electricity prices. We feel that the market's initial reaction may be negative as it will focus on falling elelctricity prices, which have been the driver behind the recent strength. Therefore, the western utitilies may get under selling pressure and hence may also indirectly negatively impact CEZ.


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