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A second round of the Hungarian parliamentary election brought no surprise

A second round of the Hungarian parliamentary election brought no surprise

24.4.2006 10:00
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A second round of the Hungarian parliamentary election brought no surprise as the Socialist-led coalition finished its victory and boosted its majority in the 386-seat Parliament to 210 seats from 198 in 2002. The victory of the Socialist party and Free Democrats is perceived as the most market-friendly scenario, because given the elections promises of all involved parties this ruling coalition represents the highest chance for consolidation of the troubled Hungarian public finance. Hence, as the political uncertainty disappears the forint might rally. Recall that the EUR/HUF pair has opened at 262.70 today, while the pair closed at 264.40 last week. We think that farther forint’s gains could lie ahead of us, especially if for instance re-elected PM Gyurscany delivers some promises of budget cuts. On the other hand should Gyurscany be reluctant to point any concrete tightening measures, which would reduce the huge budget get the currency’s recovery would be just short-lived. Technically, we see the two important resistances for EUR/HUF, standing at 262.35 and 261.40. Should the pair break below these levels the way to the 260 barrier would be opened.

Finally, we should not forget that there is an interest-rate-setting meeting of the NBH Monetary Council this afternoon. No action from the Council is expected, so the meeting’s outcome should neutral to the market, which should be drive by domestic politics today.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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