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The Polish zloty inched up just after the opening on Wednesday

26.1.2006 9:57

The Polish zloty inched up just after the opening on Wednesday, as markets took in the successful budget vote earlier in the night. Within an hour of the opening the Polish currency gained approximately 0.5% to the euro looking ripe for an attack on 3.80 EUR/PLN. This was not to be the case however. Instead the pair held to the tight 3.80-3.82 range throughout the rest of the day, with markets eagerly awaiting further political news which could give some insight on PiS’s plans for the future. One cannot stress enough, that the budget vote changes little as far as the political outlook is concerned. Snap elections are of course far from certain – they are not even our baseline scenario - but the risk that the president will dissolve the parliament in February still seems quite tangible at the moment. This is partly because PiS leaders have started to crank up the stress level once again by indicating more and more clearly that only a coalition with PO would be good enough to prevent the president from calling a snap poll. Meanwhile in the short run such a coalition seems the least likely option, with tensions still sky-high between the conservatives and liberals. We uphold our view, that PiS aims at building a majority group in parliament possibly by disintegrating PO and LPR and itself will not opt for pre-term elections after all - unless of course opinion polls swing significantly in it’s favor or a backstage deal with PO is forged, guaranteeing a solid majority in the new Sejm.

As far as the budget is concerned the act will now be sent to the Senate, where PiS has a significantly stronger position than in the Sejm. The conservatives will therefore able to overrule most of the amendments accepted by the lower house of parliament thereby returning the required form to the budget. This in turn could make their relationship with the populists even more difficult in the foreseeable future. The Senate’s proceedings will also take time physically preventing the budget act from being presented to the President on time. As for today’s trading we expect more consolidation in the 3.80-3.82 EUR/PLN range.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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