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The Polish zloty slipped by 0.5% to the euro on Tuesday

18.1.2006 10:06

The Polish zloty slipped by 0.5% to the euro on Tuesday on fears that president Lech Kaczynski might decide to dissolve the parliament on Ferbruary the 1st i.e. earlier than the widely accepted Ferbruary 19th budget deadline. According to the Polish constitution the Sejm has four months to pass the budget with time counting from the moment the initial draft is submitted by the government to the parliament. Otherwise the President has the right to call for early elections – an option particularly appealing to PiS who’s strategy we believe is aimed at keeping the smaller parliamentary groups in check ahead of the budget vote later this month. The question is whether the time of four months starts counting from 1-st of October – i.e. the time of submitting the budget by the Belka’s government or from the term of submission of the budget bill to the newly elected parliament. After a meeting with the president liberals from PO have suggested that Kaczynski’s mind is already made up and that he will in fact dissolve the Sejm on February 1st and according to press speculations PiS has already begun preparations for the upcoming election campaign. The fact is, the former administration led by Marek Belka did send the preliminary budget act to the Sejm on September 30th while the current government merely resent the act (after applying some minor changes) three weeks later, on the October 19th. Constitutional lawyers are divided on whether this brings the constitutional budget deadline forward in time or not, while the president himself is yet to take a stance on the issue. Currently no one can be sure what the president will do. It must be said that the parliament would almost certainly fail to deliver the budget in time if the earlier cut-off date were to be used, which gives PiS a significant edge over the populists right now. All in all this only adds to the vagueness of the political outlook in the coming weeks and is rather discomforting for markets in the short term perspective. Nevertheless we think that PiS will need more time to prepare for earlier elections and hence this party will not push for them . Moreover, there is high risk for PiS that popularity of center-wing parties (SLD, SdPL and Democrats.pl) may rebound as these group may form a coalition jointly lead by the former president Aleksander Kwasniewski, for whom support remains still strong in the society.

As the coalition talks between populist Self- Defence and farmers’ PSL on the one hand and PiS on the other hand have been rescheduled for today from yesterday, they will be in the center of market attention. We don’t expect these talks to become fruitful and such a coalition is from our perspective unlikely. It should be stressed however that both Self-Defence and PSL may play with this information in medias, what in turn may frighten some investors.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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