The Romanian government is to announce the winner of the tender for Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) today at around 18:00 CET, as CTK announced. Erste is one of two short-listed bidders for a majority state stake of 61.88%. According to the local press, Erste offered EUR 3.2bn; but, there had been speculation that the price might go as high as EUR 3.5bn. The latest expectations about the price that Erste’s competitor, the Portuguese Millenium BCP, might pay is believed to be even more - EUR 3.8bn. However, we think that Erste will win as it has a better positioning in the region. We reiterate our Hold recommendation, as we believe the purchase of BCR at a high price has already been factored in by the market.