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CEZ releases consolidated IFRS results

1.6.2005 8:29
Autor: Tomáš Gatěk, Patria Finance

CEZ released its 1Q2005 consolidated figures yesterday. The numbers showed a y/y growth across the board. While sales surpassed our projections, results at operating level and net income were below our forecasts. The difference at the operating level was caused by higher than expected purchases of power, while at net income level by lower than expected currency gains. The Bulgarian distribution companies contributed CZK 3.5bn in revenues. The figures confirmed the trends in the already published unconsolidated figures (May 2), which reflect the performance of the generation business, hence CEZ’s main value. As our projections are based on unconsolidated figures, we keep our projections unchanged and maintain our recommendation as Buy with fair value of CZK 515. The difference in projected and actual net income corresponds to CZK 1 per share.

IFRS, CZKm	1Q2005	1Q2004	% change   Patria est.	   
Sales	 	32,509	27,668	17.5%	   30,891	   
EBITDA		15,126	12,856	17.7%	   15,935	   
EBIT		10,349	8,281	25.0%	   11,015	   
Pre-tax income	9,358	7,352	27.3%	   10,475	   
Net income	6,755	5,254	28.6%	    7,341	   
						   
EPS (CZK)	11.41	8.88	28.6%	    12.40	 


Separately, CEZ said that based on current coal mining limits it will replace around 45% (2,900 MW) of its total coal power plant capacity (c6,500 MW) at costs of CZK 90-100bn (CZK 152 – 168 per share) by 2015. A scenario relying most on coal would lead to the replacement of up to 4,500 MW of coal capacities. A more detailed plan for coal power plants replacement should be ready by mid-December. At the same time CEZ has secured a contract to supply coal to its coal power plants until 2052. Other scenarios assume electricity generation in new gas or nuclear power plants. Note that earlier CEZ said it is considering expanding its Temelin NPP by 3,000 MW - nevertheless, a final decision should be made in three to six years.

The S&P rating agency improved CEZ’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable based on its strong financial position, the improved market and the regulatory environment in CEZ’s key domestic market, which offsets the negative implications of CEZ expansionary activities, which are more risky than CEZ’s current operations.


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