The better-than-expected March current account failed to support the koruna. It posted CZK 1.7 bn surplus, while the market expected only CZK 1 bn. High trade surplus, released earlier (CZK 6 bn) pushed the whole current account into a positive territory. However also low dividend outflow and revenues from EU weighted. On the other hand, foreign direct investments were rather weak. The koruna decoupled from its regional peers as the zloty traded sideways. There is no particular reason for yesterday’s price action. Some dividend payment could be the reason. Nevertheless, atmosphere isn’t positive for the koruna due to low interest rates. Moreover, investors assess cautiously risks now. The koruna opened little changed but lost ground continuously over the whole session to close at new 2-low at EUR/CZK 30.30. It witnessed only short-lived attempt to reversed the direction after release of weak US figures.
Today the calendar is empty and no significant figure or event is due in next nine days. There are no strong arguments in favour of stronger koruna nor weaker one. However, the koruna might be sensitive to any negative impetus. Given no negative insentive the koruna could cape some losses it suffer in previous three days
(CSOB - Investment research)