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Polish June CPI dropped by 0.4% m/m

16.7.2002 10:24
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June was another month in which there was a deflation in the prices of consumer goods and services in m/m terms. CPI dropped by 0.4% m/m which translated into its annual change of 1.6%.

The most important deflationary factor in monthly terms was the decline in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, amounting to as much as 1.4%. In turn in annual terms, the greatest drop in prices related to the category of car fuels. This amounted to 3.2% y/y. Prices that are affected by regulation and high monopolisation maintained high pace, nevertheless, in y/y terms, they slowed down as well. Cost of running the home and energy utilities went down to 5.8% from 5,9% in May. The continued weak domestic demand was reflected in the drop in the prices of clothing and footwear amounting to 0.1% m/m and 0.9% y/y.

According to the NBP, there was an increase in the euro exchange rate of 3.9% and a decline in the dollar exchange rate of 0.5%. Since crude oil purchase transactions are mainly calculated in dollars, the above changes in the exchange rate did not translate into higher domestic prices of oil. However, in July, when the zloty weakened against the EUR, as well as against the USD, there should be a resulting increase in fuel prices and transport costs. Thus in June the CPI probably reached its lowest value of this year.

Despite the faviorable data, the appointment of the new finance minister squanders chances for a rate cut this week.

Jakub Dvorak, Investment Research, CSOB


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