The National Property Fund signed an asset transfer agreement (CEZ sells a controlling stake in the transmission grid to the state, and the state sells its stakes in all 8 regional distributors to CEZ) with CEZ on Friday. Positive for the stock.
Separately, the outgoing minister of industry, Miroslav Gregr, said that CEZ could operate independently for two or three years after merging with the regional distributors (this would represent a delay in CEZ privatization). Although a privatization postponement would represent rather negative news for CEZ stock, Mr. Gregr’s comments indicate that the new Czech Cabinet (to be announced soon) may be expected to push for the completion of the asset swap, which is more relevant for the company and its stock.
For the asset-swap transaction to be competed, the valuation of the transmission grid to be sold to the state must be completed, and the Anti-Monopoly Office must approve the transaction. We believe that the AMO will object to the low recent valuation of the distributors to be purchased by CEZ, which would result in a new valuation. Nevertheless, only legal objections to the plan (rather unlikely) or the AMO’s negative evaluation of CEZ’s consequent increased market power (very unlikely) could yet halt the transaction, though we deem it unlikely. Should the transaction be completed, we would raise our target price for CEZ from the current CZK 110 to CZK 137 (based on the currently proposed transaction prices). Overall, the developments are positive, and the stock could thus react favorably.
(Jiri Soustruznik, Jan Hajek)