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Czech bond prices rose last week, the yield curve went down by 4-6 bps

8.3.2005 9:07
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The spread between the yields of Czech and German bonds is currently negative except for the longest maturities. The spread of 2Y bonds, for instance, is approximately -8 bps. During the first half of the week, Czech bond prices rose, mainly because of the release of the issue calendar, and partly ignored events on developed European markets. The second half of the week was as usual; domestic events followed on the heels of European developments. The most important event of the week was the release of the issue calendar for medium and long-term bonds for the second quarter of the year. The Ministry of Finance will supply 5Y and 10Y bonds for CZK 29 bn overall in three auctions, with one auction held every month. An auction of the new 10Y benchmark for CZK 13 bn will take place in April while the existing 3.8/2009 bond for CZK 8 bn will be supplied in May and the same amount of this bond again in June. The amount planned for the second quarter is higher than expected but the CZK 29 bn is still not enough to satisfy the high market demand. The Ministry plans to issue koruna bonds for CZK 110 bn +/- 10% this year.

A lot of new macroeconomic data will be released this week. February’s inflation rate, which will be published on Tuesday, will be the most important for the bond market. We expect that year-on-year inflation slowed down again, to 1.6%. On the same day the Czech National Bank will release the minutes of February’s CNB Board meeting, which will include information on how many Members voted for and against the rate cut at this meeting. The released information may encourage expectations of a rate cut at the meeting scheduled for March 31. Our opinion is that bond prices may, in the light of the newly released information, continue to rise. A road-show for the planned Eurobond issue will take place this week. According to one of the managers of the issue, the overall amount may reach EUR 1.5 bn if there is high demand for these securities.

(CSOB Investment research)

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