The Czech koruna experienced a bit volatile
session yesterday. Initially, it traded
unchanged from Monday’s close at 30.40
zone. However, the unit quickly jumped to
more than 2-year high EUR/CZK 30.29, as
National property fund quoted that investors
should give price for 51 percent majority in
Czech telecom in korunas. The government
intends to sell its stake in Czech telecom by
March 31. The fund added that 9 investors
already asked for detailed information on the
company. The announcement raised the
chance for unmanageable inflow of foreign
currency on the Czech forex market.
Nevertheless, the government could change
its mind thus the new koruna’s 2-year high
scared the market in the end and the koruna
changed the tide to close at 30.50 zone. A
drop of Polish zloty on change of sentiment
toward emerging markets helped too.
Today November’s foreign trade may give
the trading idea to the market. Surprising
surplus of CZK 5.2 bn is strongly positive
for the currency. Czech exporters likely
gains from strong Christmas demand in
western Europe, because exports of cars,
TV sets and electronics led the trade in
November. Nevertheless, as we saw
yesterday the market is not ready to
penetrate the EUR/CZK 30.30 level to even
stronger koruna. Therefore we prefer
scenario the koruna will not move
significantly today.
ČSOB - Investment Research