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CEZ: Winner of the SE tender should be recommended today

10.9.2004 8:50
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The privatization advisor should recommend the winner of the tender for the 66% stake in Slovenske elektrarne (SE) to the privatization committee today (10 September). The privatization committee should make its recommendation to the Government for final decision today (10 September) as well. The transaction should be completed by the end of the year. Yesterday, the Slovak daily SME reported that according to a source close to the SE privatization, CEZ has submitted the highest offer, i.e. EUR 1.19 bn for the state's 66% stake in the company. Enel's bid reportedly reached EUR 830 m while RAO's stands at EUR 550 m. CEZ's bid is significantly higher than previous information published by Reuters last week, citing an unnamed source too (EUR 660 m). We believe the value of the 66% equity stake can be estimated to lie within the range of SK 0-10bn for an investor expecting zero synergies from the acquisition. Since the Czech and Slovak power systems were constructed as a single unit before the split of the former Czechoslovakia, it can be expected that synergies would materialize should CEZ acquire SE. Moreover, CEZ has a good track record with regard to its own restructuring and positioning on the liberalized energy markets. Based on currently available (unofficial) information, we would currently assess the bid as too aggressive. Nevertheless, the other conditions associated with the privatization of SE and needed for a more detailed valuation of the 66% stake are not available.

Tomáš Gatěk

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