The Austrian government has decided to cut the CIT rate from 34% to 25% as of January 2005 and the draft is expected to be approved by the Parliament.
Erste Bank's effective tax rate is expected to reach 29% in 2003 (it is below 34% due to numerous tax exceptions) and it may decrease to approx. 22-23% in 2005 due to the tax cut, we expect. Consequently, this would significantly boost our earnings projections and valuation. Positive.
Separately, Moody's said in its new report on Austrian banks that the rating outlook for most rated Austrian banks is stable. The outlook is supported by (i) their increased exposure to high-growth subsidiaries in Central Europe, (ii) modest economic recovery in Austria, and (iii) increasing cohesion within the larger banking groups. On the other hand, the agency sees major sector weaknesses/threats in (i) intensive competition on the low-margin and inefficient domestic market, (ii) the large foreign-currency loan exposure of Austrian banks, and (iii) possible credit-rating cuts due to changes to the state support mechanism. Neutral.
Jan Hájek