Unipetrol: Unipetrol’s main subsidiaries reported their 2002 sales, pre-tax, and net profit yesterday. The results were largely in line with our projections, we see the figures as marginally positive (though significantly worse than last year).
The stock did not react to the earnings figures yesterday as privatization-related expectations are to drive the stock price in the coming weeks/months.
Refinery margins (Ceska rafinerska, Paramo) recovered at the beginning of 2003, but the outlook for both supply (oil prices) and demand (global recovery) factors are not really encouraging this year, we believe--we expect just a slight improvement over the average 2002 refinery margins. Exchange-rate developments (CZK/USD) in 2003 shouldn't have as severe an impact as in 2002 (an appreciating Czech currency is negative for the refineries since it depresses dollar-denominated refinery margins).
Similarly, olefin and polyolefin prices (re. Chemopetrol) recovered somewhat at the beginning of 2003, but visibility is low on the petrochemical market and we do not expect significant improvement in prices this year.
Neither are we bullish on plastics and rubber prices (Kaucuk).
We expect a marginal rise in domestic fuel consumption with stable retailer mark-ups (Benzina).
Jiri Soustruznik