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Central European currencies including the Czech koruna weakened on concern Irish voters will veto the treaty from Nice

10.10.2002 11:04

The Czech currency opened weaker on Wednesday's morning at 30.460 and during a while dropped as far as at 30.690. It stabilized on the 30.600 level and closed at 30.590. Against the dollar the koruna's rate developed almost the same. In the morning, it opened weaker at 31.100 and fell to 31.370. However, the afternoon's slide of U.S. stock prices significantly helped the euro to rise versus the dollar and retraced the USD/CZK bellow thirty one's koruna level. The USD/CZK closed at 31.000. This morning the koruna started at 30.590 per euro and at 30.930 per U.S. dollar. August industrial output shouldn't have any impact on the koruna, but we cannot exclude another rush of foreign investors as the Irish referendum will take place on Saturday, October 19. We anticipate the EUR/CZK to be curbed between 30.450 - 30.750 and the USD/CZK from 30.700 to 31.200.

A member of CNB's bank board Michaela Erbenova told CTK in an interview yesterday, that another interest rate cut wasn't ruled out with regard to the current inflation forecast of the CNB. The main reason for a possible rate cut is the risk of a slowdown of economic growth due to uncertainty about developments abroad. In spite of growing inflation in next year an inflation pressure will remain weak, said Erbenova. The possibilities of an exchange-rate correction are not exhausted by far, said Erbenova to the koruna's rate. From long-term view she warned against the public finance condition, its outlook is not fully consistent with a quick adoption of the euro. The year 2007 appears to be the earliest realistic date, Erbenova said.

Nervousness in upcoming days around the Central European currencies including the koruna is founded on concerns from the Irish rejection of the Nice Treaty on October 19, which may delay the accession of the Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovak and six other mostly East European countries to EU in 2004. We expect that the koruna and the other currencies might be under the pressure. In the near-term (one month) the expected rate cut by the CNB seems to be another risk factor (October 31). We anticipate, these events should push the koruna to weaker levels for a short time and that is why we think the period is haymaking for hedging deals.

	open	max	min	cls	open 10/10
EUR/CZK	30,460	30.690	30.410	30.590	30.590
USD/CZK	31.100	31.370	30.970	31.000	30.930

Stepanka Kuzilkova, Investment Research, CSOB

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