Minister of Industry J.Rusnok informed on Friday that CEZ privatization should be decided on in next 12-15 months, which is in line with our expectations. He also said that there are two scenarios - a sell of the state`s 67% stake to a strategic investor, or gradual privatization via capital markets. Both scenarios assume that CEZ will acquire the regional distributors.
We think the SPO scenario is very unlikely; for the Cabinet which is in a need to boost fiscal revenues it makes sense only in case of a lack of the strategic bidders, which is unlikely though. Should CEZ be privatized via the stock market, share overhang, and no majority premium would significantly cut into the expected privatization revenues. Neither would it be a preferred scenario for CEZ itself, since a lack of a strategic owner could handicap against regional competitors.
Jiri Soustruznik