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The Hungarian forint extended its gains on Tuesday

The Hungarian forint extended its gains on Tuesday

12.4.2006 10:00
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The Hungarian forint extended its gains on Tuesday thanks to a positive development in core bond markets, which was coupled with an ongoing recovery in the both domestic bond and equity markets. Moreover, the Hungarian unit also benefited from a pledge made by Socialist Party president Istvan Hiller, whose party obtained the biggest number of parliamentary mandates in the first round of the elections. Hiller stressed that after the second round (held on April 23rd) one of the most important tasks (of a new government) would be to rein in the budget deficit. We, however, keep to be skeptical to such promises because they sound too general and the Socialists would definitely want to win the local elections too, which means that any fiscal tightening would be very likely postponed to the next fiscal year.

Nevertheless, a short-term outlook for the forint brighten after Sunday’s vote and the EUR/HUF has maintained its downward trend. Hence, the pair managed to break below the 265.0 level, which means that the forint has gained more than one percent against the euro since Monday’s opening. Given the empty domestic calendar, the forint focus on comments coming from a domestic political scene as campaign ahead of the second election round will intensify and watch other markets (the Polish FX and core bond) too. Moreover, since the highyielding Icelandic crown hits fresh lows yesterday evening, the forint could face some negative spill-over effects and the positive correction could come to the end today.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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