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The Polish zloty drifted in choppy rangebound trading after a short-lived move higher in early trade on Monday

The Polish zloty drifted in choppy rangebound trading after a short-lived move higher in early trade on Monday

11.4.2006 10:06
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The Polish zloty drifted in choppy rangebound trading after a short-lived move higher in early trade on Monday, as coalition talks between the ruling PiS and the parliamentary fringe groups got underway in Poland. The EUR/PLN pair moved south first thing in the morning in reaction to the positive results of the general election poll in Hungary but was eventually unable to hold to the 3.95 area. A streak of weakness came after FinMin Zyta Gilowska deemed leftist Self-Defense (SO) economic demands, which include the introduction of a turnover tax and a minimal social payments for the unemployed, impossible to meet. Gilowska vowed, that she would try to explain this to the SO leader Andrzej Lepper, although it could be that with Lepper already focused on the deputy PM seat she might in fact have little explaining to do.

One might see the zloty’s negative reaction to Gilowska’s firm response to populist demands as a bit odd, although it supports our long-standing view that in the short run the market seems more concerned with the lack of political stability rather than the potential implication of the conservative-populist coalition. Hence, the zloty might in fact react positively to the once purely exotic scenario in which Lepper enters the government. In the meantime however further gains should capped by the lack of political clarity and the unfavorable global sentiment toward emerging fixed income markets.

The session’s economic calendar is blank so the market will be driven by global factors and politics today. At the same time the 3.95-4.00 EUR/PLN should remain the range both today as well as for the rest of the pre-holiday week. As if to confirm this outlook the EUR/PLN pair edged lower late on Monday where it once again hit strong support.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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