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The Czech koruna was pretty resistant to jittery on emerging markets in recent days and the situation on Wednesday wasn’t different

The Czech koruna was pretty resistant to jittery on emerging markets in recent days and the situation on Wednesday wasn’t different

30.3.2006 9:40
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The Czech koruna was pretty resistant to jittery on emerging markets in recent days and the situation on Wednesday wasn’t different. The Czech currency opened at weaker note to lose 0.3 % in the morning. However the level of EUR/CZK 28.80 proved to be strong resistance. All in all, the koruna lost less than its regional peers. Moreover, the unit bounced back in the afternoon as the first in the region to close unchanged at 28.70. There was no data to speak of.

Today all eyes might be at the policy meeting of the central bank. There is a wide consensus among analysts that the bank will stay on hold. However, the market may focus on the comment after the meeting. In the current bearish environment traders may look for any hawkish statement or any hint of increase in official rates in future. Hawkish commentary may push the koruna undoubtedly higher. We admit that the governor may send a warning that the koruna is too strong, but we do not expect strong effect on the market. No member will be missing on the upcoming meeting, thus the vote result might be unanimous to 5:2 in favor of stable rates.

Since the last meeting the Board received key data on strong GDP growth in Q4 which opposed necessity of lower rates. On the other hand, a development of the koruna in March showed little effect of the wider negative interest rate deferential. We remind, that the Board didn’t cut rates on last meeting mainly because it believed that a rise in ECB rates would harmed the koruna enough. Therefore the Board may hold rates stable despite another hike in euro rates for rather long period.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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