On Thursday the negative sentiment for the Polish zloty reversed and the unit recovered earlier losses, after the release of strong retail sales growth figure. The market opened at 3.9110 EUR/PLN 3.2440 USD/PLN. The growth of the retail sales which exceeded the market consensus (see more in the fixed income part) triggered some firming of the zloty. The PLN’s buoyancy continued till the release of extraordinary strong data from the US real estate, market that caused some limiting of investment positions in emerging markets, including Poland.
We expect the market sentiment will be largely driven by the global investment attitude toward emerging markets today. At the same time Polish currency should remain under the negative influence of domestic politics, as the outlook is currently still very shaky.
(CSOB - Investment research)