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On Friday the Polish zloty followed changes in the global sentiment toward emerging markets

20.3.2006 9:36

After the opening at the levels of 3.8485 EUR/PLN and 3.1160 USD/PLN the currency stared climbing at daily highs, that were reached two hours later at the levels of 3.8210 EUR/PLN. Neither industrial production and PPI data nor comments expressed by rate setters were able to influence the market. Global repositioning of investment portfolios that took place after the release of a strong IP growth data in the US, sent the zloty together with other currencies from the region to weaker levels just before the closing.

Unexpectedly, on Saturday the PiS leader announced that his party would submit a motion to dissolve the parliament. In this context, the support of at least 307 parliament members is needed to pass this motion through the Sejm, so both the SLD and PO must agree on that. On Sunday in turn, the PO leader Donald Tusk stated that his group is not currently interested in a call for snap elections. It implies that the Kaczynski’s party will have now two options. The first would be to withdraw support for Marcinkiewicz's government, but such a move would be incomprehensible to the PiS voters and we believe that this is a decidedly less likely solution.

The second option would be to make the support for the government stable, by inviting Samoobrona and either LPR or PSL to a coalition offering them seats in the government. This solution has an advantage that it will be easier for the PiS to control its allies sharing some power and responsibility with them, because steering them with a stick only and without any carrot, has proven to be ineffective. The major risk is that populist could be obstructive during the works on 2007 budget, but such a behavior is not predetermined. The PiS’s motion will be probably discussed on the parliament’s session on 22-23 of March. We expect that increasing worries about the domestic political outlook will cause the zloty to be traded at a softer side at least till the coming Wednesday-Thursday, when the parliament’s session is scheduled.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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